'2050'

18^th September 2050

Fertility Rate At Dangerously Low Levels

The Department of Statistics has released a glaring warning to the people of Singapore- the fertility rate has plunged to an all-time low of 0.5. This is way below the needed replacement rate of 2.4.

'What this means is that we had better start reproducing, if not we are in dire straits.' said Mr. Tan Chow Bing, 2^nd Minister for Manpower and Minister of Health.

The fertility rate started its steady decline in the 1970s, when the Government had instituted a 'stop at two' policy to reverse the post-World War II baby boom. Despite attempts in the past by the Government to institutionalize family-friendly policies such as compulsory and extended maternal leave and baby bonus packages, the trend has not seen even a plateau.

Commenting on the reasons behind the downward trend, expert on social behavior Prof. Goh Wee Gan of the Singapore School of Geopolitics cited 'education, wealth and competition' as the most potent causal factors. 'We are looking at a country whose education is world class. Girls and boys are trained from young to compete for the survival of Singapore. Naturally, being so well-equipped to enter the working world necessitates the prioritizing of careers over family life.'

Indeed, Prof. Goh's analysis of the phenomenon seems to concur with many Singaporeans. 'Look, it's not that I don't want to have children. It's just that if I go and have a kid, my boss will fire me. I have bills to pay, and if I can't do that, how can I support a child?' says Mrs. Wang, a 35 year old accountant married for 5 years.

A low fertility rate has great consequences for the country. Indeed, the most obvious has been the rapidly ageing population and the increased dependence on the young. Singapore's population now comprises 48% elderly (65 and above), and has an adult-to-elderly ratio of almost 1:1. Mr. Faiman, CEO of Graceful Ageing, the chain of 4 retirement homes in Singapore, says that 'the chain is currently running near full-capacity'. In response to who foots the bill, Mr. Faiman candidly exclaims that it is 'mostly, very much mostly the children'.

Social workers have reported an increased prevalence of depression and nervous breakdowns amongst the working population. The 'quandary that many of their clients are in', Ms. Chang, manager of hotline Samaritans of Singapore, 'is that they have to support their aged parents, deal with working demands, and at the same time try to maintain their relationships with their spouses.' She adds, 'most feel guilty that they have resorted to putting their parents into retirement homes, but they always say that it is the best that they can do.'

The Government has pledged to adopt a multi-pronged approach to address the matter. To solve current manpower needs, Mr. Tan announced yesterday at the Tanjong Pagar GRC dinner that 'it is planning to raise the retirement age to 66 (from 65), lower the barriers to immigrants and easing adoption laws further'. In ensuring that 'Singapore remains Singaporean', it is 'contemplating a compulsory 'at-least-one' child policy for all married couples'.

Mr. Tan refused to answer further questioning on the viability of its compulsory child policy, saying that 'it will be discussed further in Cabinet before more details are out'.

A pop survey on people's views on the policy has revealed a generally negative response.

'We are already working so hard, now the Government is increasing competition in the workplace by allowing more foreigners in.' said Mr. Eng, a manager at a local engineering firm.

'Raise my retirement age? What next, raise my CPF retrieval age?' said a shocked taxi driver who refused to be named.

Dr. Vanessa Tay, head of cardiology at the Jurong West Hospital for the Aged said that, 'a compulsory one-child policy would certainly affect the women more than the men. What will happen to the quality of our work? How can we compete?'

However, some noted the benefits of the strategy. Said Ms. Goh, an entrepreneur, 'If we do not replace ourselves, someone will come in to fill the gap. We are at the stage where every path is a bitter one. Better to swallow the medicine now than to have a painful operation later.'

When Parliament convenes on October 15^th, the country will certainly be watching the developments.